Spatial characterization and distribution modelling of Ensete ventricosum (wild and cultivated) in Ethiopia

Abstract

• Enset (Ensete ventricosum) feeds around 20 million people in Ethiopia and is arguably the most important crop for food security and rural livelihoods in the country. Therefore, it is significant to know its spatial characterization and distribution in the country. We use spatial overlay analysis and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for characterizing and modelling, respectively. Inputs for the model include 26 environmental variables—19 bioclimatic and seven biophysical—in addition to the geospatial location of enset field data. The model result was validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic curve method and the area under the curve (AUC) with 0.842 for cultivated enset and 0.760 (wild enset). The highest prediction (>0.5) of both varieties occurred in the southwestern, south-central and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia—17,293.67 km2 (cultivated) and 40,402 km2 (wild) area. The presence of both enset is probabilistically higher at the tropic-cool/sub-humid Agroecological Zones. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.