A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion.

Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database ( , , , ) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location. Our verification method rejects 40–60% of simulated false claims, depending on the spatial scale of the claim, and maintains a low probability of rejecting correct origin claims. Our determination method predicts harvest location within 180 to 230 km of true location. Our results showcase the power of combining data types with probabilistic modelling to identify and scrutinize timber harvest location claims.

Project(s)

Priority 1: Ecosystem Stewardship

Funder

Funder name	Awards
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government, United Kingdom
U.S. Department of State, United States
Vlaamse regering, Belgium	‘Onderzoeksprogramma Artificiële Intelligentie (AI) Vlaanderen’ Programme
Vetenskapsrådet, Sweden	National Academic Infrastructure for Supercomputing in Sweden (2022-06725, 2018-05973) - 2019-05191
Stiftelsen för Miljöstrategisk Forskning, Sweden	MISTRA (Project BioPath)
Kew Foundation, United Kingdom