Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Future Distributions of Ectomycorrhizal Fungi.

Qi, Muyao; Bidartondo, Martin I.; Suz, Laura M.; Orme, C. David L.; Arraiano‐Castilho, Ricardo; Tovar, Carolina

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Future Distributions of Ectomycorrhizal Fungi.

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Ecology_and_Evolution_-_2025_-_Qi_-_Predicted_Effects_of_Climate_Change_on_Future_Distributions_of_Ectomycorrhizal_Fungi.pdf

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1.16 MB

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Adobe PDF

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Resource type

Journal article

Creator (person)

Qi, Muyao

ORCID

Bidartondo, Martin I.

ORCID

Suz, Laura M.

ORCID

Orme, C. David L.

ORCID

Arraiano‐Castilho, Ricardo

Tovar, Carolina

ORCID

Date published

December 17, 2025

Abstract

To model the distribution of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi to (i) analyse climate change impacts on their future distribution areas and centroids and (ii) analyse their distribution changes by ECM fungal host specificity. Location: Europe. Time period: 2041–2100. Major taxa studied: Ectomycorrhizal fungi. We modelled the distributions of 60 common ECM fungal species in European forests and projected their future distributions under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Both abiotic and biotic (host tree distribution) variables were included in the modelling, with ECM fungal species classified into broadleaf specialists (19), conifer specialists (22) and generalists (19). We estimated changes in both the areas and geographic centroids between the projected future and current distributions for each species and for each ECM fungal host specificity group. We found that host tree distributions make strong contributions to ECM fungal distribution models, but their influence varied with ECM fungal host specificity. The distributions of most ECM fungal species are projected to decline (ranging from 0.2% to 64%) and shift northward under the three climate scenarios in both 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, and most ECM fungal conifer specialists are projected to lose more of their current distribution compared to broadleaf specialists and generalists. Substantial decline of studied ECM fungal co‐occurrence is projected in southern England, central Europe, Finland and Sweden. Our results evidence ECM fungi will be mostly negatively affected by climate change, but this will vary with host specificity. Thus, conservation actions need tailored actions for the different groups. Conifer specialists need special attention, either through targeted monitoring or by assessing their conservation status. Overall, a conservation plan for fungi is needed under climate change scenarios.