Cost Analysis of Seed Conservation of Commercial Pine Species Vulnerable to Climate Change in Mexico.
Name
forests-13-00539-v2.pdf
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1.64 MB
Format
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Resource type
Journal article
Date published
March 30, 2022
Abstract
Mexico is home to 40% of the pine species in the world. By the year 2050, 20% of the Mexican forests could be lost because of climate change and other human-related activities. In this paper, we determine the potential areas for seed collecting of four species of the genus Pinus and its ex situ economic value under different future Climate Change Scenarios (CCS). The species analyzed were Pinus oocarpa Schiede ex Schltdl, P. rudis Endl., P. culminícola Andresen et Beaman and P. leiophylla Schiede ex Schltdl. and Cham which together accounts for 19% of the timber production in Mexico. Potential areas of distribution of populations in habitats with Annual Mean Maximum Temperatures (AMMT) for seed collection were modelled through a Geographic Information System and climate database. The seed storage economic value was determined by using the Collection Cost Method. The AMMT of P. oocarpa, P. rudis, P. culminícola and P. leiophylla were 28 °C, 20 °C, 18.3 °C and 27.4 °C, respectively. The economic losses from shortages of these species due to CCS in 2050, were estimated of 88.5 million (USD) and 67.16 million (USD) with severe and conservative future CCS, respectively. The nominal investment rate would be 8.84% or more, for storing seeds of the four species and withstanding climate change. An ex situ seed bank is a medium and long-term investment; among its benefits are establishing a market price for the use and conservation of species in the face of possible adverse scenarios.
Creator (organisation)
Rodríguez-Zúñiga, Joel
Flores-Ortiz, Cesar M.
González-Guillén, Manuel de Jesús
Lira-Saade, Rafael
Rodríguez-Arévalo, Norma I.
Dávila-Aranda, Patricia D.
Ulian, Tiziana
Funder
| Funder name | Awards |
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico | Postdoctoral Fellowship Program |
Garfield Weston Foundation | |
Journal title
Forests
Volume
13
Issue
4
Article number
539
Publisher
MDPI AG
Place of publication
Lausanne, Switzerland
eISSN
1999-4907
Date accepted
March 26, 2022
Official URL
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Rights statement
In Copyright
Additional information
This article belongs to the Special Issue Economy and Sustainability of Agroforestry Ecosystems.