The climatic challenge: Which plants will people use in the next century?

More than 31,000 useful plant species have been documented to fulfil needs and services for humans or the animals and environment we depend on. Despite this diversity, humans currently satisfy most requirements with surprisingly few plant species; for example, just three crops – rice, wheat and maize – comprise more than 50% of plant derived calories. Here, we synthesize the projected impact of global climatic change on useful plants across the spectrum of plant domestication. We illustrate the demographic, spatial, ecophysiological, chemical, functional, evolutionary and cultural traits that are likely to characterise useful plants and their resilience in the next century. Using this framework, we consider a range of possible pathways for future human use of plants. These are centred on two trade-offs: i) diversification versus specialization in the range of species we utilize, and ii) substitution of the species towards those better suited to future climate versus facilitating adaptation in our existing suite of dominant useful plants. In the coming century, major challenges to agriculture and biodiversity will be dominated by increased climatic variation, shifting species ranges, disruption to biotic interactions, nutrient limitation and emerging pests and pathogens. These challenges must be mitigated, whilst enhancing sustainable production to meet the needs of a growing population and a more resource intensive standard of living. With the continued erosion of biodiversity, our future ability to choose among these pathways and trade-offs is likely to be diminished.

Funder

Funder name	Awards
Global Challenges Research Fund, United Kingdom	Foundation Awards for Global Agricultural and Food Systems Research, ‘Modelling and genomics resources to enhance exploitation of the sustainable and di verse Ethiopian starch crop enset and support livelihoods’ [Grant No. BB/P02307X/1].
Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom	Belmont Forum project FICESSA (Food Security Impacts of Industrial Crop Expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa; Grant No. NE/M021351/1).